برنامج FX NEWS

FX News هو تطبيق مكتبي من إنتاج fx4beginners.com, يقوم بعرض البيانات والأخبار الاقتصادية الهامة المنتظر حدوثها على مدار الأسبوع, مع عرض جميع المعلومات الأخرى المتعلقة بالبيانات الاقتصادية وبدقة بالغة.

مزايا FX News:
- تحميل سريع لكافة البيانات الاقتصادية الأسبوعية من الانترنت بنقرة واحدة.
- عرض اكبر عدد من البيانات الاقتصادية (الأعياد والعطلات, المؤتمرات وخطب المسئولين, و العديد من البيانات الاقتصادية الأخرى).
- عرض منسق لجميع البيانات مع أمكانيه تقسيم العناوين إلى مجموعات حسب يوم الحدوث, أو البلد, أو الأهمية.
- عرض جميع المعلومات المتعلقة بالبيانات الاقتصادية مثل الأهمية والبلد والقيم المتوقعة والسابقة وبدقة بالغة.
- عرض وتحديث للوقت المتبقي والوقت المنقضي لجميع العناوين.
- قائمة منفصلة للأحداث الجارية تعرض الأحداث التي انتهت منذ فترة قصية والأحداث المنتظر حدوثها بعد دقائق.
- أمكانيه العمل بدون اتصال خلال الأسبوع, يحث يتم تحميل البيانات مرة واحدة فقط أول الأسبوع (التحميل لا يستغرق سوي بضع ثوان).
- ميزة التنبيه الصوتي قبل وقت الحدث بفترة يقوم المستخدم بتحديدها, مع أمكانيه تغيير الصوت التنبيهي.
والعديد من المزايا الأخرى التي ستكتشفها بنفسك عند استخدامك لهذا البرنامج ..

احصل الآن على نسختك من هذا البرنامج المميز

حجم الملف : 1.79 ميجابايت نظام التشغيل : Microsoft Windows يحتاج إلى وجود إطار عمل Microsoft Framework 3 مثبتا بالنظام.

يعمل هذا البرنامج بكامل وظائفه مجانا حتى 31 يوليو 2008, وللاستمرار في تشغيل البرنامج بعد هذا التاريخ يجب أن يكون لديك عضوية في FX4Beginners.Club أو ترخيص FX4Beginners.Tools Access.

حول عضوية FX4Beginners.Club.
للمزيد من المعلومات حول عضوية FX4Beginners.Club اضغط هنا.

حول ترخيص FX4Beginners.Tools Access.
يتيح لك هذا الترخيص الاستفادة من جميع المواد التابعة لخدمة FX4Beginners.Tools, بالإضافة إلى الاستفادة من جميع المنتجات التابعة للخدمة بما فيها هذا البرنامج.

يتم منح ترخيص FX4Beginners.Tools Access للمشتركين لمدة عام كامل بخدمة التوصيات المباشرة FX4Beginners.Signals منذ فبراير 2008, ويستمر هذا الترخيص لمدة عام كامل.

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET

Trading Symmetric Triangles

Trading Symmetric Triangles

---

Although some of the more well know chart patterns to trade off of include the Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base another chart pattern to look for is the Symmetric Triangle.

The Symmetric Triangle pattern usually occurs after a stock makes a significant move over a short period of time and then pulls back for a few weeks before making another significant move upward. The weekly chart of OMNI below shows that it made a quick move in early November of 2003 and then developed a Symmetric Triangle. OMNI then broke out again in the early part of December and doubled in price over the next four weeks.

Another example is shown by RADN which formed two separate Symmetric Triangle patterns in November and December of 2003 before moving higher.

Thus recognizing those stocks which are forming a Symmetric Triangle pattern can lead to substantial gains if they break out to the upside.

Regards,
Bob Kleyla

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET

The Volatility Index

The Volatility Index

---

An Analysis of the Volatility Index (VIX) over the past 15 Years

Many investors have wondered whether extremely low or high readings in the Volatility Index (VIX) have always given a strong signal as to when the market may be nearing a bottom or top. A plot of the VIX versus the S&P 500 back to 1986 is shown below.

From what I can see the VIX was rather volatile from 1986-1990 especially when the market crashed in 1987. Then from 1991 through 1994 the VIX was pretty stable as the market traded nearly sideways. Meanwhile as the market started to rally strongly beginning in 1995 the VIX gradually became more volatile again by 1997 and has continued to be volatile ever since with strong fluctuations both to the downside and upside. The question is will the VIX eventually transition to a less volatile environment like occurred in the 1991 to 1994 time period when the market began to trade sideways or will it continue to see more strong fluctuations in the future?

If we break down the past 15 years into separate time periods and start with the past 5 years there has been a fairly strong correlation between a rapid drop or rise in the VIX and a nearing market top or bottom. Some examples of nearing bottoms associated with a quickly rising VIX have occurred at points A, B and C and to a lesser extent at points D and E. Meanwhile as the VIX has approached a very low level a nearing market top has occurred at points F, G, H and I over the past 5 years.

Meanwhile from the period of 1991 through 1994 the market traded nearly sideways as the S&P 500 only gained about 75 points during that 4 year period. During this period of time the VIX was pretty stable and really didn’t move strongly in either direction.

Looking further back from 1986 to 1990 the VIX was more volatile and did do a good job of signaling a nearing top before the market crashed in 1987 (point J) and also was at a fairly low level before the market sold off in 1990 (point K). Meanwhile as the VIX spiked sharply higher (point L) with the market crash in 1987 this did help signal a nearing bottom which eventually led to a longer term up trend until the market peaked in the Summer of 1990.

Overall it looks like the VIX has been pretty useful since 1998 with all of the market swings to the downside and upside while in the early to mid 1990’s it wasn’t that useful as the market traded basically sideways. In the mid to late 1980’s there were a few times when it was useful especially when the market was nearing a significant bottom or top.

Regards,

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET

Stock Target Price

Stock Target Price

---

Using the 10 Day Moving Average of the VIX (Volatility Index) to time a Reversal in the the S&P 500

Investors can get an idea of when the market may reverse when the 10 Day Moving Average (MA) of the Volatility Index (VIX) becomes significantly stretched away from its 10 Day Moving Average (MA). A simple example is shown below which compares the 10 Day MA of the VIX to the S&P 500.

Notice when the VIX got stretched significantly away from its 10 Day MA (blue line) to the upside (points A) that the S&P 500 made a bottom (points B) and then reversed to the upside.

Thus keeping track of where the Volatility Index is in relation to its 10 Day Moving Average can give investors a clue to when the market may be getting close to a near term bottom and possible upside reversal.

Regards,

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET

Stock Market Leadership

Stock Market Leadership

---

Stocks that act well while the Market is selling off may give you a clue to new Leadership

Over the past few years many investors have given up on the market especially when another round of selling has occurred. However this is exactly the wrong time to give up on the market because when the market reverses to the upside those stocks which had been acting well during the sell off may become the next big winners.

Here are a few examples of what I’m talking about. Let us compare the charts of HITK and USNA with the chart of the S&P 500 this past Summer and Fall when the market was selling off.

Looking at HITK first shows that this past Summer and Fall while the S&P 500 was dropping (points A to B) HITK was actually rising (points C to D) while completing the right side of a 1 1/2 year Cup. HITK then traded sideways for 4 weeks while developing a Handle (point E) and then broke out in late October. After breaking out HITK nearly doubled in price over the next few months before topping out in early January.

Now let us compare USNA with the S&P 500. USNA formed a 2 1/2 year Cup from the early part of 2000 until June of 2002. When the S&P 500 began to sell off last Summer and Fall USNA basically traded sideways during that period of time while developing a 4 month Handle from July through September. Then when the market made a bottom in early October and began to rally USNA broke out of its Handle on huge volume (point F). After breaking out in early October USNA then doubled in price over the next three months.

As you can see noticing which stocks are acting well when the market is selling off can give you a clue to whom the next leaders will be when the market begins to reverse strongly to the upside.

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET

Shorting Stocks Strategy

Shorting Stocks Strategy

---

Shorting a stock is the exact opposite of buying a stock. When you short a stock you are hedging your bets that the stock will go down in price unlike when you buy a stock and believe the price will go up. In order to short a stock you must have a margin account with your brokerage firm. In addition you also have to short individual stocks on an up tick but can short the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) on a down tick. Thus as an investor you have more of an advantage shorting the ETF’s than individual stocks.

Many investors try and short a stock way to early as they believe the stock price is way overvalued. However many times a stock that is overvalued in price may become even more overvalued especially when the stock market is in an extended upward move. The proper time to short a stock is after it has encountered its first strong downward thrust and bounced for a short period of time which sets the stage for a second move to the downside.

Lets look at an example. NTES which made a huge move in 2003 eventually peaked in October of 2003 and then made its first strong downward thrust (points A to B). Notice how NTES then found support near its 200 Day EMA (purple line) and 50% Retracement Level near the $40 level. After finding support near the $40 level NTES then rallied on below normal volume but encountered resistance at its 100 Day EMA (green line) and 38.2% Retracement Level near $48 (point C). This set the stage for a second short opportunity as NTES began to stall out near the $48 level. In this example NTES could have been shorted around the $48 level with a Stop Loss Order placed just above the $50 level just in case NTES broke to the upside instead. During the month of December NTES fell from $48 to $35 a share but did find support just above its 61.8% Retracement Level which was near $34 (point D). Thus investors could have covered their short positions at one of two prices with the first at the 200 Day EMA near $40 and the second near the 61.8% Retracement around the $34.

Thus I believe the best time to short a stock is to wait for it to bounce after it makes its first major thrust downward, after going through an extended upward move, and then try and catch the second move downward. When looking for stocks to short make sure they are exhibiting these three characteristics.

1. The stock has already undergone one significant move downward after making a top.
2. The stock then finds support at a certain Fibonacci Retracement Level or Moving Average and rallies on poor volume.
3. The stock then stalls out near its 38.2%, 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level or Moving Average after rallying.

By following these simple rules investors will have a much higher success rate when attempting to short stocks.

Regards,

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET

How Sales and Earnings Growth is related to a Stock’s Performance

How Sales and Earnings Growth is related to a Stock’s Performance

---

If you go back through the history of the stock market there is a recurring theme among those stocks which have had some of the strongest price appreciation and it’s related to their Sales and Earnings Growth. If you plot a chart of Sales and Earnings Growth versus a companies Stock Price there is a usually a strong relationship between the two.

Here is a recent example during the past year. USNA has been one of the strongest performing stocks during the past year and has been experiencing accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth over the past year. A table of USNA Sales and Earnings Growth is shown below.

Meanwhile if we take the table above and make a graphical plot of USNA’s Earnings Growth versus its Stock Price shows a very strong relationship. Notice how USNA’s stock price (blue line) began to rise significantly as its Earnings Growth (red line) started to accelerate beginning in the Spring of 2002 (point A) and has continued through the Spring of 2003 (point B). From March of 2002 until mid June of 2003 USNA has seen its stock price rise from $1.60 to over $50 a share for a return of over 3000%.

I first featured USNA as a Stock to Watch based on its accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth and Cup and Handle chart pattern in August of 2002 when it was trading around $7 a share. If you don’t believe it click here for the report. Notice how USNA formed a 2 1/2 year Cup followed by a 3 month Handle before breaking out in October of 2002.

As this example shows regardless of market conditions companies which have accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth have the potential to perform very well until their Sales and Earnings Growth begins to decelerate. If you don’t believe this go back and research some of the best performing stocks of all time and a majority of them will exhibit similar characteristics.

The key is to recognize those companies which are starting to establish a trend of accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth before everyone else does which takes a lot of time and research. This is what I do every week as I spend over 20 hours a week looking for companies that are starting to show signs of accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth. This is how I found USNA well before its stock price took off.

Regards,

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET

How Sales and Earnings Growth can affects a Stock’s Performance

How Sales and Earnings Growth can affects a Stock’s Performance

---

If you go back through the history of the stock market there is a recurring theme among those stocks which have had some of the strongest price appreciation and it’s related to their Sales and Earnings Growth. Let’s look at two companies over the past few years and compare their Sales and Earnings Growth.

First let’s look at Microsoft (MSFT) which has hard meager Sales and Earnings Growth in 2002 and 2003. Since the market made a bottom in October of 2002 MSFT has seen very little price appreciation since then. Back in early October of 2002 MSFT was trading around $22 a share and in late March of 2004 MSFT was trading near $24 a share. Thus while the major averages saw significant gains from October of 2002 into the early part of 2004 MSFT was only up 9%.

Now let’s look at a stock which has been exhibiting strong Sales and Earnings Growth over the past year or so. As you can see below Taser (TASR) has seen accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth over the past two quarters which has been reflected in its stock price. TASR formed a "Cup and Handle" pattern before breaking out in September of 2003 and rose nearly 800% from September of 2003 through mid February of 2004.

As these examples show those companies which have accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth have the potential to perform very well while those with poor Sales and Earnings will languish even in a Bull Market environment. I would imagine those investors who have held MSFT over the past few years aren’t very happy as the stock price has virtually gone nowhere since October of 2002 into the early part of 2004.

The key is to recognize those companies which are starting to establish a trend of accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth before everyone else does which takes a lot of time and research. This is what I do every week as I spend over 20 hours a week looking for companies that are starting to show signs of accelerating Sales and Earnings Growth.

Regards,

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET

Earnings Growth and Stock’s Performance

Earnings Growth and Stock’s Performance

---

Why Earnings Growth is Important to a Stock’s Performance

If you go back through the history of the stock market there is a recurring theme among those stocks which have had some of the strongest price appreciation and it’s related to their Earnings Growth. If you plot a chart of Earnings Growth versus a companies Stock Price there is a usually a strong relationship between the two.

Here are a few examples over the past few years. First lets look at ELNT and its associated table of Earnings Growth and Stock Price over the past two years.

Meanwhile if we take the table above and make a graphical plot of ELNT’s Earnings Growth versus its Stock Price show a very strong relationship. Notice how ELNT’s stock price (blue line) began to rise significantly as its Earnings Growth (red line) started to accelerate beginning in December of 1999 (point A) and continued through September of 2000 (point B). From September of 1999 until September of 2000 ELNT saw its stock price rise from $9 to over $90 a share for a return of nearly 900%.

Next look what happened as ELNT’s Earnings Growth peaked in September of 2000 and began to decelerate over the next several months. As you can see ELNT’s stock price dropped in unison with its Earnings Growth (points B to C) and eventually gave back much of its gains that had occurred in 2000.

Now lets look at another example which proves that even in a Bear Market stocks can do well if they have strong Earnings Growth. BEL was a company that had major problems with its Earnings Growth in 2000 as shown by the table below. BEL didn’t start to see any positive Earnings Growth until 2001 but when it did finally occur BEL’s Earnings Growth accelerated strongly in the latter half of 2001 into early 2002.

As shown by the graphical chart of the table above BEL’s stock price went nowhere in 2000 (points D to E) as their Earnings Growth remained negative. However as BEL’s Earnings Growth accelerated in 2001 into early 2002 investors took notice as BEL’s stock price exploded in early 2002 (point F to G). Since the Fall of 2001 BEL’s stock price has risen from around $4 to over $20 a share for a return of 375% even in a negative market environment.

As these examples show regardless of market conditions companies which have strong accelerating Earnings Growth have the potential to perform very well until their Earnings Growth begins to decelerate. If you don’t believe this go back and research some of the best performing stocks of all time and a majority of them will exhibit similar characteristics.

The key is to recognize those companies which are starting to establish a trend of accelerating Earnings Growth before everyone else does which takes a lot of time and research. This is what I do every week as I spend over 20 hours a week looking for companies that are starting to show signs of accelerating Earnings Growth. This is how I found BEL and ELNT well before their stock prices took off.

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET

An Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900

An Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900

---

From a historical perspective since 1900 there have been 3 Secular Bull Markets and 3 Secular Bear Markets as shown by the tables below of the Dow and S&P 500. As you can see during a Secular Bull Market the Average Annual Return (highlighted in red) is considerably higher than during a Secular Bear Market (highlighted in blue). Thus the long term Buy and Hold strategy that worked well in the 1980’s and 1990’s for investors may have not worked very well during the Secular Bear Markets of 1906-1921, 1929-1949 and 1966-1982.

Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and Dow Performance

The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Mark

et which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add 18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on either side then the next Secular Bull Market may not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021 time period if we are now entering a 4th Secular Bear Market. However I would like to point out that even in a Secular Bear Market there can still be Bull Markets lasting a year or two as the longer term charts of the Dow show below.

Notice after the Secular Bull Market of 1922-1928 which was followed by a Secular Bear Market from 1929-1949 that the Dow still had impressive gains during the early to mid 1930s (points A to B) before going through another Bear Cycle prior too and during World War II (points B to C). This was then followed by another Bull Cycle from 1943-1946 (points C to D). However from the early part of 1937 (point B) until the end of 1949 (point E) the Dow virtually had a net gain of 0% as its basic overall pattern was a series of up and down movements which pretty much cancelled each other out.

Meanwhile after the Secular Bull Market from 1950-1965 the Dow once again went through another Secular Bear Market from 1966-1982. Notice after the Dow peaked in early 1966 (point F) that it had a lot of upward and downward movements from 1966 through 1982 but it basically went nowhere and actually was lower at the end of 1982 (point G) versus its peak in early 1966 (point F).

Looking at the current chart of the Dow shows that it has been exhibiting a choppy pattern similar to previous Secular Bear Market environments after experiencing a Secular Bull Market from 1983-1999. One has to wonder during the next 10 years or so whether the Dow will continue to exhibit a similar pattern that occurred from the mid 1960’s through the 1970’s in which it had a lot of downward and upward moves but the overall net gain was negligible.

Even if we go through another Secular Bear Market over the next several years there will still be plenty of smaller Bull Markets and if taken advantage of properly will still lead to some excellent investment opportunities in the future.

Regards,

WWW.NEWKAL.COM

WWW.DAMNHOUR.COM

WWW.AHLAWIA.COM

WWW.MOFTAHY.NET

WWW.EGYPT4FUN.COM

WWW.MUSIC4WORLD.NET